Well that rock has been kicked down the road...
As Boz gleaned from Turkish newspapers last week, Sarkozy has sidelined the Turkey dossier in favor of progressing on a new mini-treaty for Europe. A senior Elysee official confirms as much in today's Le Monde. Politically speaking, French conservatives are obviously paying the price for abandoning Le Pen at the polls. They no longer pose a threat of deserting Sarkozy's UMP, so the new president is working on his left flank instead; Turkey baiting will resume whenever electorally necessary.
Though it's still too early to conclude anything, most of Sarkozy's big campaign themes are being chipped away by the reality of ruling. Today's newspapers also have reports that the so-called minimum service laws are being watered down, or at least creating confusion amongst the unions. A tax credit on housing loan interest is also up in the air. Will homeowners already paying interest now be eligible, or only buyers once the law has passed?
The confusion may be coming from the hyperactive president. He's said over and over again that he'll move quickly (and goes out jogging for the press everyday to "prove" it). But since the parliamentary elections are still a couple of weeks away, Sarkozy is stalling on introducing anything, leaving his ministers to twist in the wind, struggling to fill sound-bytes while not knowing what they're going to have to sell when it's time to start selling.
According to some of my favorite pundits on C'est dans l'air last night, it's very likeley that the first laws to pass will be the crime ones, the 'three strikes and your out' type laws Sarkozy has long favored. The Minister of Justice responsible for introducing them, Rachida Dati, owes her whole political career to Sarkozy and will delever exactly what he wants. And besides, these 'tough on crime' laws are typically political no-brainers.
The university reform law may be shoved through during the summer, too, for the simple reason that students are on holiday and won't bother to come back from backpacking in the Andes to fight it on the streets of Paris. Similarly, some work laws may be pushed through because resistance is always softer in August.
But we won't know until the week of June 18th what the real tenor of this early presidency will be. There's bound to be some laughter and tears, that's for sure.
At least Turkey can rest easy.
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