Four weeks to go, and Sarkozy's to lose?

For anyone who understands French, Christophe Barbier's video editorial today on where the election stands right now feels pretty dead-on.

Four weeks to go, and this is the final stretch. It's a three-way race now, no doubt about it, though Le Pen's final roar, if it is one, could bring a cold slap in the face to Sarkozy if Bayrou numbers keep up.

Poor Segolene has another controversy today, with the rantings of the apparently mentally unstable Eric Besson, her former economic advisor.

But his walk off the deep end victimises Sego and helps re-establish her image as a political outsider, which is what she declared she wanted to do in a TV program last night. With the loony left still loony, as of today, I think she is still looking good.

(And the more I think about it, the more I think Sarkozy's Ministry of French Identity was a strategic lifeline to her, an effort to help lift Sego into the second round where he is persuaded he will beat her.)

But the favorite still has to be Sarko. It's his to lose as they say. We'll just have to see if he can hold all the chips together.